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1. As trade war goes on, USTR appetite for exclusions diminishes and USTR wants to keep up pressure for “Phase 2” negotiations. 2. USTR wants to encourage long-term supply chain diversification. 3. Early high success rate encouraged lots of less-than-compelling requests.
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Good read on the declining percentage of tariff exclusion requests that USTR is grating, from 35% to 3%. Three (non-exclusive) theories: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-denying-more-tariff-exemption-requests-11580736641?mod=mhp1 ….
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Assuming that COSCO Tanker got delisted because it credibly agreed to stop shipping oil from Iran to China, this action is a win for U.S. sanctions policy. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/OFAC-Enforcement/Pages/20200131.aspx …
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A piece of good news when it comes to Iran policy: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm890 …
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Really enjoyed joining
@ChrisBrummerDr and@SignCurve on Fintech Beat to discuss sanctions and crypto.https://twitter.com/ChrisBrummerDr/status/1220461117979398144 …
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Exactly the right call by the Pentagon on Huawei.https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-blocks-clampdown-on-huawei-sales-11579870801?mod=breakingnews …
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Peter Harrell proslijedio/la je Tweet
Excellent piece
@dandrezner@washingtonpost on ineffectiveness of Trump's approach to economic coercion. Thanks Dan for shout out to my recent@CNASdc policy brief on sanctions with@Energy_Liz. cc:@AU_SIS@BtGProjectDChttps://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/01/21/trumps-meager-haul-economic-coercion/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Peter Harrell proslijedio/la je Tweet
Strange that more American firms aren’t moving to Gibraltar and Bermuda … given how productive labor seems to be in these jurisdictions (from the IRS country by country tax data for 2017, the year before tax reform) https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-country-by-country-report …pic.twitter.com/WhNd1Q4jV0
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Yet again, the Trump Administration apparently succeeds in using economic threats to press allies to agree to a US policy demand. Still, I do wonder/worry about the long-term ramifications of the US becoming such a transactional & "pressure-first" country:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/days-before-europeans-warned-iran-of-nuclear-deal-violations-trump-secretly-threatened-to-impose-25percent-tariff-on-european-autos-if-they-didnt/2020/01/15/0a3ea8ce-37a9-11ea-a01d-b7cc8ec1a85d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-low_usiran-130pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans …
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I sense some potential tension between (a) recent press reports that China's purchase commitments under the "Phase 1" deal include buying more semiconductors, and (b) recent press reports that the U.S. will further restrict sales to Huawei and perhaps other Chinese tech firms...
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Delighted to be speaking on IEEPA at
@GeorgetownICAP conference on presidential emergency powers in early March.https://twitter.com/GeorgetownICAP/status/1216724228982001665 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Peter Harrell proslijedio/la je Tweet
Join
@GeorgetownICAP &@NatSecLaw on March 3 to discuss Presidential Emergency Powers@GeorgetownLaw! Featuring@BillBanksINSCT@marty_lederman@DebPearlstein@jamil_n_jaffer@mbderosa@LizaGoitein@jgeltzer@MargLTaylor@petereharrell & more. Register:https://jnslp.com/symposium/Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Plus, Trump has been too optimistic about how brittle the Iranian regime is. We all want democratic activists to topple the regime. But I have never been convinced of our ability to predict or cause regime change. You have to assume that the thugs in power stay in power.
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The risk then was the cycle of escalation we seem to be seeing now, and that cycle leading to a major war.
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Of course, war has been a risk since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. For the first year Trump’s strategy looked smart because Iran played victim rather than escalating. But Iran was always going to escalate if victimhood failed: “maximum pressure for maximum pressure.”
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As others have said, none of us will miss Quassem Soleimani. But we will dearly miss any Americans killed if U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, and I pray that we can avoid that outcome.
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With the "Phase 1" U.S.-China trade deal coming into force, U.S. competition with China will shift to export controls, supply chains, investment restrictions, and other targeted measures. My take on how to do this effectively:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/27/united-states-china-trade-war-fought-export-import-controls-investment-restrictions-sanctions/ …
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Exxon’s success having a $2 mil OFAC fine overturned in court is a significant development, esp. for compliance. One immediate takeaway from the opinion is that OFAC may have to publish more public guidance on how they interpret their regs. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCOURTS-txnd-3_17-cv-01930/pdf/USCOURTS-txnd-3_17-cv-01930-2.pdf …https://twitter.com/RichardMNephew/status/1212419775403573248 …
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Must-read from the NYT on the complete lack of privacy in the US given cellphone tracking. I’ve been arguing for a year now that this is a critical national security issue. Not to mention our own domestic privacy interests....https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/19/opinion/location-tracking-cell-phone.html …
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Today's de-listing of the Ventspils Freeport, sanctioned just a week ago for being controlled by a corrupt official, after major ownership and control changes, appears to be a significant success for U.S Magnitsky Act sanctions. https://home.treasury.gov/index.php/news/press-releases/sm860 …
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