Peter Harrell

@petereharrell

Foreign policy, nat'l security, and politics. Law practice and work with . Atlanta native.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2010.

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  1. prije 11 sati

    1. As trade war goes on, USTR appetite for exclusions diminishes and USTR wants to keep up pressure for “Phase 2” negotiations. 2. USTR wants to encourage long-term supply chain diversification. 3. Early high success rate encouraged lots of less-than-compelling requests.

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  2. prije 11 sati

    Good read on the declining percentage of tariff exclusion requests that USTR is grating, from 35% to 3%. Three (non-exclusive) theories: .

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  3. 31. sij

    Assuming that COSCO Tanker got delisted because it credibly agreed to stop shipping oil from Iran to China, this action is a win for U.S. sanctions policy.

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  4. 30. sij

    A piece of good news when it comes to Iran policy:

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  5. 25. sij

    Really enjoyed joining and on Fintech Beat to discuss sanctions and crypto.

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  6. 24. sij
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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    Excellent piece on ineffectiveness of Trump's approach to economic coercion. Thanks Dan for shout out to my recent policy brief on sanctions with . cc:

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    20. sij

    Strange that more American firms aren’t moving to Gibraltar and Bermuda … given how productive labor seems to be in these jurisdictions (from the IRS country by country tax data for 2017, the year before tax reform)

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  9. 15. sij

    Yet again, the Trump Administration apparently succeeds in using economic threats to press allies to agree to a US policy demand. Still, I do wonder/worry about the long-term ramifications of the US becoming such a transactional & "pressure-first" country:

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  10. 15. sij

    I sense some potential tension between (a) recent press reports that China's purchase commitments under the "Phase 1" deal include buying more semiconductors, and (b) recent press reports that the U.S. will further restrict sales to Huawei and perhaps other Chinese tech firms...

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  11. 14. sij

    Delighted to be speaking on IEEPA at conference on presidential emergency powers in early March.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    13. sij
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  13. 3. sij

    Plus, Trump has been too optimistic about how brittle the Iranian regime is. We all want democratic activists to topple the regime. But I have never been convinced of our ability to predict or cause regime change. You have to assume that the thugs in power stay in power.

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  14. 3. sij

    The risk then was the cycle of escalation we seem to be seeing now, and that cycle leading to a major war.

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  15. 3. sij

    Of course, war has been a risk since Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. For the first year Trump’s strategy looked smart because Iran played victim rather than escalating. But Iran was always going to escalate if victimhood failed: “maximum pressure for maximum pressure.”

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  16. 3. sij

    As others have said, none of us will miss Quassem Soleimani. But we will dearly miss any Americans killed if U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, and I pray that we can avoid that outcome.

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  17. 2. sij

    With the "Phase 1" U.S.-China trade deal coming into force, U.S. competition with China will shift to export controls, supply chains, investment restrictions, and other targeted measures. My take on how to do this effectively:

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  18. 2. sij

    Exxon’s success having a $2 mil OFAC fine overturned in court is a significant development, esp. for compliance. One immediate takeaway from the opinion is that OFAC may have to publish more public guidance on how they interpret their regs.

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  19. 19. pro 2019.

    Must-read from the NYT on the complete lack of privacy in the US given cellphone tracking. I’ve been arguing for a year now that this is a critical national security issue. Not to mention our own domestic privacy interests....

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  20. 18. pro 2019.

    Today's de-listing of the Ventspils Freeport, sanctioned just a week ago for being controlled by a corrupt official, after major ownership and control changes, appears to be a significant success for U.S Magnitsky Act sanctions.

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