Challenging new paper finds not only that solar geoengineering would greatly benefit hot, tropical countries but cooling the planet substantially would have enormous benefits. @Tony_HardingGT @katericke @hexusplexus @jmorenocruz Some Thoughts and highlights
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The authors apply the widely cited and respected Burke et al. Econometric model to solar geoengineering. Burke found a robust relationship between economic production and temperature that predicts an optimum temperature and declining productivity away from that optimum. 3/
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Burke's original study found that Tropical countries would suffer disproportionately in a warming world as they are shifted farther from the optimum climate conditions and their economies suffer. This dynamic would mean global warming would lead to much greater inequality. 4/
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Now as solar geoengineering would lower temperatures you can guess where Harding et al. are going, but they go further than that. They include a scenario where solar geoengineering halts warming but also another where it drives temperatures substantially below current levels. 5/
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They find that deployed to halt warming solar geoengineering offsets most impacts of climate change but has some additional benefits as it overcools the hot tropics that are above the economically optimal temperature predicted by Burke et al. 6/
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In the scenario where they cool the planet substantially, the economies of the tropics boom, greatly reducing global inequality. This is a startling result and seems implausible. However, if the model is robust then it should be robust to both warming and cooling. 7/
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Either the model is robust in predicting the impacts of warming AND cooling and we should heed its predictions, or it is not robust for either and we should seek to understand why. Some great quotes from the authors on this. 8/pic.twitter.com/5EAcQy0zYL
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I agree with the authors that the hydrological impacts of climate change and solar geoengineering may not be well captured by these models but if so, then work needs to be done to resolve this problem. 9/
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A great paper, it challenges many things: the robustness of the standard econometric model, assumptions around the optimal level of cooling for solar geoengineering, and the fact that solar geoengineering would disproportionately benefit the North at the expense of the Tropics. /
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