Pete Irvine

@peteirvine

Lecturer at UCL Earth Sciences focusing on evaluating the potential, limits and risks of solar geoengineering, as well as its broader implications.

London, UK
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2010.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    24. ruj 2019.

    "Technical characteristics of a solar geoengineering deployment and implications for governance" with Doug MacMartin, and Ben Kravitz. A decision to deploy solar geoengineering will not just be a Yes / No question, here we explain some of the complications.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 4 sata

    Climate Engineering as a Communication Challenge: Contested Notions of Responsibility Across Expert Arenas of Science and Policy

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  3. 31. sij

    2 new papers on the way. One re-submitted before 9 am and hopefully another submitted later today.

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  4. 30. sij

    I agree that its worthwhile changing focus from RCP8.5 towards a more realistic BAU case. However, there's a lot of momentum in the system. The core of the AR6 runs and the various MIPs are based on RCP8.5. This means that any transition away from RCP8.5 would take years.

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  5. 29. sij

    Great job on the geoengineering podcast ! Going to recommend it to students who want to get a broader understanding of solar geoengineering issues when I cover this in my course.

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  6. 28. sij

    The >$1B development cost is a major bump on the path from research to deployment that won't slip by unnoticed. Spending >$1B to develop this kind of aircraft would signal an intention to deploy. FIN 6/6

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  7. 28. sij

    There are a few take aways from this paper: (1) deployment using aircraft is very feasible, (2) a more robust understanding of what would be required (number of flights, planes, etc.), (3) less concern about a slippery slope from experimentation to deployment. 5/

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  8. 28. sij

    The aircraft has a wing span of ~52m, and an overall length of ~36m, 6 engines, and would be made using available engines and no new technology. They estimate that developing this aircraft would take 6 years and cost between $1.1 and $1.5 B. 4/

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  9. 28. sij

    For deployment at the 3 Mt scale they suggest that around a dozen airfields would be needed across the Tropics (30N-30S)

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  10. 28. sij

    The paper's design is for an aircraft that can fly to 20 km (which is high enough) carrying 13.5 tons of SO2. This would mean ~180 sorties per day with each aircraft flying twice a day, with excess capacity for repairs, etc. The mission profile is shown in the figure. 2/

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  11. 28. sij

    This paper outlines an initial design for an aircraft that could deploy stratospheric aerosol geoengineering at scale, finding that ~80 aircraft would be needed to deploy 1 Mt SO2. Some more highlights follow 1/

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    27. sij

    Congrats for your first first author paper 👏👏👏 Conventional assumptions involving the speed of radar waves in snow introduce systematic underestimates to sea ice thickness and seasonal growth rate estimates

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  13. 26. sij

    A great paper, it challenges many things: the robustness of the standard econometric model, assumptions around the optimal level of cooling for solar geoengineering, and the fact that solar geoengineering would disproportionately benefit the North at the expense of the Tropics. /

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  14. 26. sij

    I agree with the authors that the hydrological impacts of climate change and solar geoengineering may not be well captured by these models but if so, then work needs to be done to resolve this problem. 9/

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  15. 26. sij

    Either the model is robust in predicting the impacts of warming AND cooling and we should heed its predictions, or it is not robust for either and we should seek to understand why. Some great quotes from the authors on this. 8/

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  16. 26. sij

    In the scenario where they cool the planet substantially, the economies of the tropics boom, greatly reducing global inequality. This is a startling result and seems implausible. However, if the model is robust then it should be robust to both warming and cooling. 7/

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  17. 26. sij

    They find that deployed to halt warming solar geoengineering offsets most impacts of climate change but has some additional benefits as it overcools the hot tropics that are above the economically optimal temperature predicted by Burke et al. 6/

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  18. 26. sij

    Now as solar geoengineering would lower temperatures you can guess where Harding et al. are going, but they go further than that. They include a scenario where solar geoengineering halts warming but also another where it drives temperatures substantially below current levels. 5/

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  19. 26. sij

    Burke's original study found that Tropical countries would suffer disproportionately in a warming world as they are shifted farther from the optimum climate conditions and their economies suffer. This dynamic would mean global warming would lead to much greater inequality. 4/

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  20. 26. sij

    The authors apply the widely cited and respected Burke et al. Econometric model to solar geoengineering. Burke found a robust relationship between economic production and temperature that predicts an optimum temperature and declining productivity away from that optimum. 3/

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  21. 26. sij

    Find the article here: This didn't get much media attention but I think this is one of the most interesting and challenging results for the field of climate econometrics and climate impacts assessment, and an important result for solar geoengineering. 2/

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