I’m told that after the dotcom crash 1BRs that used to rent for over $2K started renting for $1300 or so.
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Replying to @pcwalton
I saw a 3BR in North Beach advertised for 3500 in 2009. Who knows. But if anything, it seems like the forces to drive things up are even more entrenched.
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Replying to @AaronErickson
My 1BR in Palo Alto was $1300 or so in 2010. I think it would have been $2k in the dotcom boom, but not sure. Anyway, I’m disappointed by SB50 too, but I’m more optimistic going forward, because it polls so well. Popular will typically isn’t suppressed for long in a democracy.
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Replying to @pcwalton @AaronErickson
Hoping for dot com correction is not good because it was such a huge capital misallocation (ie bubble). 2008 moved home prices more than it did rents. There was a great analysis that showed rents increasing 3% annually since 1950s, and IMO we just stall until meeting that trend.
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Of course, that rate of growth is still bad news for everyone besides incumbents, so the supply side reformers have much to fight for still.
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Replying to @Mallrat9000 @pcwalton
“Let’s crash the economy to make home prices go flat” - yeah, I’m thinking no. At least w job security I can live w roommates for 3 years, save up, and move. Also, the “wishing misery on job insecure to make a diff group housing secure” idea? Hard pass.
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Replying to @AaronErickson @pcwalton
This was the data compiled by
@enf. I haven’t heard of any criticisms of the raw data but have a couple of the analysis. It shows about a 6% nominal annual increase in rents. Enjoy: https://experimental-geography.blogspot.com/2016/05/employment-construction-and-cost-of-san.html …1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
That was 2016. 2019 is very different. I watch my home value and I can tell you it isn’t going up and to the right anymore. :)
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Home prices are the wrong gauge for affordability. You should look at rents. Kevin Erdmann has the best work on that. Furthermore, the cited number is an average across 60 years so a few years of being under does not disprove the rule. (FWIW rents seem flat since 2015.)
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I’m not sure what we’re arguing about then. Obviously 2012-2018 has been a terrible time for housing affordability in the Bay Area. I’m just saying, I expected 2019 to be a year of huge home price appreciation and it hasn’t so far.
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BTW I’m very much *not* hoping for a tech crash, want more density, etc. I just think things will probably get better for housing affordability in CA over time, though it’ll be a long slow road.
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