I dunno. I had exactly your same thinking last year when I bought in, but Bay Area home values have been pretty flat or even declining slightly this year. I think we may have reached the point where there just aren’t enough buyers who can pay ever-increasing prices.
That was 2016. 2019 is very different. I watch my home value and I can tell you it isn’t going up and to the right anymore. :)
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Home prices are the wrong gauge for affordability. You should look at rents. Kevin Erdmann has the best work on that. Furthermore, the cited number is an average across 60 years so a few years of being under does not disprove the rule. (FWIW rents seem flat since 2015.)
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I’m not sure what we’re arguing about then. Obviously 2012-2018 has been a terrible time for housing affordability in the Bay Area. I’m just saying, I expected 2019 to be a year of huge home price appreciation and it hasn’t so far.
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