What’s Gonna Happen to Bay Area Housing?https://link.medium.com/tel8cKNT1W
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Replying to @AaronErickson
I dunno. I had exactly your same thinking last year when I bought in, but Bay Area home values have been pretty flat or even declining slightly this year. I think we may have reached the point where there just aren’t enough buyers who can pay ever-increasing prices.
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Replying to @pcwalton @AaronErickson
Which doesn’t mean the problem is fixed, because housing prices are still unaffordable for almost everyone. But I think the wild uncontrollable growth in SFBA home value may be over for now.
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Replying to @pcwalton @AaronErickson
I think when I did the essay/overview on Google I even mentioned how increasing housing prices led to increasing salaries.
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Replying to @yuhong2 @AaronErickson
Jonathan Tang on HN had an interesting theory that the Bay Area home value boom was the direct result of the collapse of the Schmidt/Jobs labor cartel. Cartel collapses > FAANG salaries explode > employees buy up basically *all* the houses in the Bay Area.
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If this theory is correct then that suggests the 2012-2018 home value explosion was basically a one-time thing.
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