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When the curve has peaked and declined, the Rt was < 1 through a combo of reduced social connectivity and immunity. This chart from @trvrb shows (for R0 of 2.5) how much reduction in social connectivity is needed to get Rt < 1 for a given amt. of immunity and vice-versa.pic.twitter.com/3inJtB5SuQ
w/ heterogeneity of social connectivity and exposure, the picture is more complex. Indiv. towns and/or social communities may employ rigorous social distancing and have low immunity. w/ eventual relaxing of SD, they are at risk for clusters of infection even if Rt <1 overall
Over half of the states are Rt<1; Another 1/3 of the states are nearing 1 and should drop under in 2-3 weeks if the trend continues.https://rt.live/
So does 100% on the y axis mean 100% less connectivity or no reduction is needed?
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