Instead of revealing a door and offering the other, say "you can have the better of what is behind the other two doors."
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I was able to build intuition here by pre-specifying a strategy (I.e., always switching at random before the information comes and changing my guess if my switch was bad). This makes that intuition clear.
Kraj razgovora
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There are 1000 doors. One has a goat behind it. MONTE HALL KNOWS WHERE THE GOAT IS. You choose 1 of the 1000 doors. Monte Hall opens 998 of the remaining doors that he knows do not have a goat. Was your 1/1000 guess right, or is Monte Hall hiding the goat?
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Tremendous thought experiment!
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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One confusing element of the question structure is that we don’t know whether to trust that Monty is choosing randomly. If he flips a coin to choose his door, then we gain more information from his choice vs believing he may be purposefully choosing a goat.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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The easiest way to explain this paradox is to substitute a deck of cards for the 3 choices. [Since 50 cards are eliminated, our 1st choice is almost always wrong.]
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Exactly. You know you don’t have the ace of spades, you know that the rest of the original deck, now that it’s been turned over, didn’t have it. The sheik has it, so take the change.
- Još 1 odgovor
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Given that the problem statement left out how Monty decides what door (if any) to open, maybe he IS out to trick you! Maybe he always picks a door to open at random even if it reveals the car! Absent that information these "gut reactions" are just as valid as the "true solution".pic.twitter.com/PDTqz4KpIw
- Još 1 odgovor
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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There are 1000 doors
Would you switch?