Paul Portesi ن​

@paulportesi

Having the attitude of Grigori Perelman. Many ideas generated from NNT Incerto. Please don't ask to unblock. Reminded of Chinese farmer proverb.

Phoenix
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2011.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati
    Odgovor korisnicima

    This is true and every Chinese blame government for this. We made the same mistake we did 17 years ago for SARS. Hopefully, people will learn the lesson this time.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati

    "Opportunities are much harder to quantify than costs... since you can choose which of those opportunities you actually exploit, opportunity tends to skew positive." I could listen to all day. Credit also to & for their questions/input.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Pages 8-11 Friends, looking for typos/errors. Thanks again

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    When you work on a home, especially an older home, you are physically inserted into a stream of knowledge that you only partially see. You have to be careful and humble as you tinker to understand and repair instead of ruin.

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 33 minute

    The best part of being an applied mathematician is that you get to "play in everyone's backyard" as John Tukey put it. I've had the opportunity to work in areas I never expected: video games, human fertility, nutrition, drones, medical devices, ... It's been great fun.

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  7. Modernity information is designed to trick & mislead you through evidence-based analysis. Many risk events aren't in the distribution. "risk happens in the future" You manage now to prepare for future risk events. Filter your information & trust your instincts.

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 2 sata

    Excellent article on the ideologically-driven “conservation” practice of defacing historical buildings and destroying their harmony by insisting that any additions be incompatible, unsympathetic and inorganic modern designs. ...

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 5 sati

    Complacency means we do not get a say how deadly coronavirus is going to be

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    The thing that worries me about is that I don't know anything bad about him.

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 2 sata

    Adapt to survive emergents v’s command and control technocrats we won a battle but the war isn’t going well

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 1 sat

    The sum of independent Poisson random variables has a Poisson distribution.

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 1 sat

    Today’s . wealth -> intelligence -> wealth -> intelligence -> ... umh, wha? | inspired by For more visit For my books

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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 1 sat

    Despite the claimed need for global governance, what's really needed for much risk mitigation is local sovereignty Those "on the ground" must be able to manage their exposure without coercion from distant authorities with divergent interests

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    ... policy and expectations about what could happen absent the policy. Counterfactual (what didn’t happen) never observable. Thus, the gap can never be verified ex post. In some cases, past evidence/observation can be a good proxy for counterfactual. In other cases, not.

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    In some cases, bad policy can produce "evidence" and good policy can prevent "evidence" from arising. A problem for "evidence-based" policy. It can be reconciled by recognizing that policy/action should be based on the gap between what you expect to have happen with the ...

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 3 sata
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    Seems to be a failure to understand that what is considered to be "evidence" ex post (i.e., the future path ex ante) is not independent of collective action/policy but may be very heavily influenced by it.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 1 sat

    «We shall not cease from exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time» - T. S. Eliot [Mandelbrot set zoom, magnification 1 .. 3.18 × 10³¹ ]

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    prije 3 sata

    The only cure for anti-nature is the re-introduction of nature (emergence).

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