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paulnovosad's profile
Paul Novosad
Paul Novosad
Paul Novosad
@paulnovosad

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Paul Novosad

@paulnovosad

R2: "a morass of disjointed streams of consciousness"

NH
dartmouth.edu/~novosad/
Joined January 2012

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    Paul Novosad‏ @paulnovosad Nov 19

    Paul Novosad Retweeted Jennifer Doleac

    Big idea here. 👇🏼 Machine learning outperforms judges at predicting recidivism, but only because judges have multiple objectives -- they don't want to incarcerate young people. How many other machine learning "wins" are actually misspecified objective functions?https://twitter.com/jenniferdoleac/status/1196771340944056321 …

    Paul Novosad added,

    Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac
    The full paper (just released) is here: “Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3489440 … Tweet-thread coming shortly! @MeganTStevenson pic.twitter.com/G01HtmzFWy
    Show this thread
    6:03 AM - 19 Nov 2019
    • 373 Retweets
    • 1,012 Likes
    • Chris Miciek Bill Benzon Tomas Folke Endless DS Dr. Jennifer Stark Rafael Padilha Cláudio Lucena LeineHunts Raul Puri
    11 replies 373 retweets 1,012 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Fisher‏ @chrisfishsea Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad

        The win is correctly predicting recidivism. It isn’t supposed to be making a decision.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Paul Novosad‏ @paulnovosad Nov 19
        Replying to @chrisfishsea

        It is erroneous to conclude that the machine is better at predicting recidivism if the judge isn’t trying to predict recidivism.

        2 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      4. 4 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. (((David Shor)))‏ @davidshor Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad

        It’s not super clear to me that the risk scores are wrong here from a social benefits perspective

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. Sam Tobin-Hochstadt‏ @samth Nov 19
        Replying to @davidshor @paulnovosad

        The mismatch between the age structure of behavior, what we know about mental maturity, and modern society's age thresholds for adulthood is a big problem that is under-discussed.

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Sharat Ganapati‏ @sharatganapati Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad

        I think this is a bigger issue than this in economics. We talk about the 'efficiency' increase of lots of counterfactual. But that only masks the fact that we may not actually know the underlying objective/utility.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. Marlene Plumlee‏ @marplumlee Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad @Austan_Goolsbee

        It’s key to remember that machine learning requires an objective function. This is extremely hard (impossible?) to specify. Try it. Try to do it for very simple decisions. Exponentially harder for complex decisions. Like sentencing.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Scott Santens 🧢‏Verified account @scottsantens Nov 20
        Replying to @paulnovosad

        Universal basic income would dramatically decrease recidivism. It would also decrease incarceration rates. Or we could just continue arguing if machines or people are better at locking people up based on how we define "better."

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Babanruwa‏ @ElMahmoud98 Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad @jenniferdoleac

        @AyshaBintMahmud

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. SpinZero‏ @SpinZero00 Nov 19
        Replying to @paulnovosad @lymanstoneky

        And things considered this still seems like a solid performance by ML.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Martin Jaramillo L‏ @Tinojaramillo Nov 20
        Replying to @paulnovosad

        @DanielMejiaL

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