To everyone who wondered why I never wanted a Blue Check from twitter, is it easier now to understand?
Pinned Tweet
Follow
Paul Romer
@paulmromer
Economist (macro). Coder (Python). Optimist (mostly).
Paul Romer’s Tweets
While I'm here ...
There is one important story that I found when I came back after a month:
See also:
twitter.com/lydiadepillis/
Quote Tweet
Important paper here from the @BostonFed finds that 44% of the rise in labor force exits among prime aged U.S. men from 1980-2019 is driven by a decline in *relative* wages for non-college educated white guys: bostonfed.org/publications/r
Show this thread
2
2
11
Stop doom scrolling on twitter.
Read some good news:
paulromer.net/inflation/
2
14
40
Winding down twitter, moving to my blog:
On Sequoia Capital's fawning portrait of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the collapse of his financial empire (FTX), and the central role the Sequoia portrait assigns to effective altruism (EA) in this saga.
EA-FTX-SBF
paulromer.net/ea-ftx-sbf/
4
4
45
Winding down twitter and moving to my blog:
Looting as the Endgame of the Entirely Predictable Crypto Collapse
paulromer.net/looting-redux/
4
24
88
I’m good.
Twitter Verified is a sham. It is in no way a solution to the pervasive identity problems on this and all other digital platforms.
I don’t want a check for me. I want someone to come up with a trustworthy solution that is open to every real person.
1
8
49
Healthy Davis Together: Creating a Model for Community Control of COVID-19
American Journal of Public Health
ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ
1
7
19
Well who'd a thunk:
Turns out that frequent testing did in fact reduce deaths from covid:
politico.com/news/magazine/
Revealing, and very damning, article by
3
13
52
Here we go:
If Offit truly cares about the cost versus benefit of a vax, why hasn't he done a cost-benefit analysis?
Why does a journalist quote him without demanding numbers?
Good science relies on quantification, not hunches and hand-wringing.
science.org/content/articl
4
2
24
Don't let yourself or those you love be collateral damage from negative-attention-getting behavior.
2/2
2
6
49
Show this thread
I couldn't agree more with .
I can say it more bluntly:
The noise that some well known scientists injected into the public discussion about vaccines killed a lot of people In the US. And is still killing them.
1/2
nytimes.com/2022/09/15/opi
3
22
97
Show this thread
The international comparisons suggest something specific to US that affects workers at all ages.
It also suggests that employment in the US has been on a downward trend behind ups and downs of recessions and recoveries since late 1990s.
3/n
2
3
15
Show this thread
Canada should be suffering from the same post covid reduction in labor supply. US lags far behind among workers between ages of 25-54.
Same when comparing US to other countries:
2/n
2
2
10
Show this thread
New story on still under-reported and under-appreciated fact about US labor market -- fewer people are at work.
nytimes.com/2022/09/12/bus
As notes, covid and above age 55 could be part of the story.
But only part. See US v Canada for prime age workers.
1/n
3
14
48
Show this thread
But the fraction of adults w a job is lower in the US compared to what it was in the past and to other countries. See e.g. the difference for both men and women in US vs. Canada.
So crucial that wages continue to increase for workers w least attachment to labor market.
4/4
3
15
Show this thread
Moreover, wage inequality continues to go down -- wages are growing faster in bottom quarter of wage dist than in top quarter.
We have not seen this much progress since the tight labor market of the 1990s.
3/N
2
7
26
Show this thread
12 month change in PCE measure of prices:
July 2021 - June 2022: 6.8%
Aug 2021 - July 2022: 6.3%
2/N
1
1
10
Show this thread
Economic update:
One month ago I showed data on the increase in inflation in many countries and predictions that it would fall.
twitter.com/paulmromer/sta
So far, those predictions have been correct. PCE inflation gauge that Fed uses shows US prices fell slightly in July.
1/N
Quote Tweet
Inflation in the US looks similar to inflation in peer countries
https:paulromer.net/current_recove
1/3
Show this thread
3
15
52
Show this thread
Congrats to the team at the WSJ for making sure their article on the letter from NARA documenting the sensitivity of the classified info recovered from Mar-a-Lago in Jan 2020 included a link to the actual letter.
,
4
16
Or you can read the letter here:
5
9
Show this thread
You can find the letter from NARA (National Archives and Records Administration) here:
archives.gov/files/foia/wal
2
2
12
Show this thread
Politico reruns quote from Rep Stewart:
politico.com/news/2022/08/2
Why? News that Trump kept had even more "special access program" materials.
- FBI inventory for docs recovered on Aug 8
- Letter from Nat. Archives leaked today by Team Trump about docs recovered back in Jan 2022
Quote Tweet
Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah), a member of the Intelligence Committee, commenting on today's news about Trump:
politico.com/news/2022/08/1
3
20
37
Show this thread
Helpful background from on the legal implications of nuclear secrets.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/
2
6
24
Wrote op-ed w/ Nobel Prize winning economist in which we explore the power of mathematical functions (and mathematical thinking) to provide a clear debunking of AI sentience and to reveal what's been largely missing from the debate. 🧵 1/14
26
96
279
Show this thread
Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah), a member of the Intelligence Committee, commenting on today's news about Trump:
politico.com/news/2022/08/1
5
17
59
The good news is that wages are increasing faster for those with the lowest employment rate
paulromer.net/current_recove
10
48
Show this thread
The prime age employment Rate in the US has still not recovered and lags far behind the rate in peer countries
paulromer.net/current_recove
1
19
61
Show this thread
Inflation in the US looks similar to inflation in peer countries
https:paulromer.net/current_recove
1/3
1
98
283
Show this thread
I refer to the graph of wage growth at 2:50 in this video:
6
18
Show this thread
"But wait!
Didn't fresh-water macro-economists show that they could just assume away nominal wage rigidities and produce coherent theories that come out they way they want them to?"
Yes, but a fact beats a theory every time.
1
5
17
Show this thread
This is a nice example of why I've stopped allowing replies.
People who should know better tweet out so much that is plainly wrong.
An inflation adjustment would make zero difference to a measure of relative wages!
Quote Tweet
I'd inflation adjust tho. twitter.com/paulmromer/sta…
Show this thread
12
4
14
Of course, the hero behind the success of Biden's policy is .
Her work on nominal wage rigidity tells you exactly why the only way to get a reduction in wage inequality is to have an increase in the rate of growth of average wages.
1
6
31
Show this thread
But from the same article -- the US still has a long way to go to reduce wage inequality:
6
23
Show this thread
From my conversation today with :
The secret success of Biden's economic policy. Wage inequality is shrinking -- wages for workers at the bottom are growing faster.
3
49
140
Show this thread
Back in the naive 1990s, when I was trying to characterize the link between technology and economic growth, I didn't think about the possibility that a nation's tech sector might specialize in new opportunities for grift.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
7
9
53