JavaScript is not available.

New at THE OVERSHOOT: Is the 2022H1 GDP Decline...Fake? theovershoot.co/p/is-the-2022h <-- The details of the data continue to be confusing and contradictory. But the economy is almost certainly slowing even if it hasn't yet started shrinking.

10:49 AM · Jul 31, 2022

Replying to

This is *not* a critique of the BEA, which has to make estimates based on incomplete data and imputations; America is not a total surveillance state in which every transaction is observed by the government 2/

178

But because all economic statistics are estimates, not direct observations, they can be inconsistent with each other and are often revised, sometimes by a lot 3/

183

The inconsistencies have been especially large lately: GDP falling but GDI, which should be exactly the same, rising along with employment; industrial production up when the economy is supposedly down; etc 4/

213

This kind of noise in the data explains why the NBER doesn't rush to make recession calls, and relies on multiple indicators, not just GDP 5/

212

Klein does a deep dive into possible sources of error right now, such as misclassifying investment (which adds to GDP) as purchases of intermediate goods (which don't). Time will tell if he's right. 6/

177

But there's a pretty good chance that we'll eventually conclude that the economy, while slowing, actually grew in 2022H1. 7/

378

And at that point all the people who responded with insults, obscenities and threats to those of us who said this isn't a recession (yet?) will apologize and resolve to engage in less motivated reasoning in the future. See, I made a joke 8/

109

711

Replying to

You are definitely neither an economist, nor a thinker, much less a serious person. You are a simple and sad propagandist incapable of holding reality and desperately trying to modify the truth to favor the impoverishment of Americans. Shame on you.

Show replies

@mnsportsguy72

Replying to