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paulkrugman's profile
Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman
Paul Krugman
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@paulkrugman

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Paul KrugmanVerified account

@paulkrugman

Nobel laureate. Op-Ed columnist, @nytopinion. Author, “The Return of Depression Economics,” “The Great Unraveling,” "Arguing With Zombies," + more.

New York City
nytimes.com/column/paul-kr…
Joined October 2008

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    1. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Paul Krugman Retweeted Dave Weigel

      It's not just odd failure to mention Biden tax credit. Within Europe, several, you know, actual democracies have lavish pro-natalist policies, France in particular 1/https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1418741348224667651 …

      Paul Krugman added,

      Dave WeigelVerified account @daveweigel
      Interesting speech. Vance praised a policy by Viktor Orban that pays parents who have multiple children - "why can't we do that here?" - but didn't mention the Democrats' child tax credit.
      Show this thread
      74 replies 195 retweets 1,202 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      These policies work! French fertility higher than rest of EU, and actually us too 2/

      25 replies 39 retweets 399 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Chart 3/pic.twitter.com/c3kAcUQHyi

      13 replies 34 retweets 256 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Probably going to write about the return of "family values" soon. But a brief thread on the economics. Huge evidence that spending more on children does a lot for their future health and productivity. But should more children per se also be a goal? 4/

      17 replies 49 retweets 444 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Low fertility does have economic effects. It means a higher old-age dependency ratio, making safety net harder to afford. It also contributes to secular stagnation: weak investment demand => persistent low interest rates 5/

      16 replies 37 retweets 383 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      But the first issue, while real, is often overstated. Remember how retiring baby boomers were going to cause fiscal catastrophe? Well, boomers started hitting 65 in 2010. No catastrophe yet 6/

      35 replies 50 retweets 406 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      SSA projects that Social Security outlays will rise 1% of GDP by 2070. Other demographic effects on budget — Medicare and Medicaid also affected by aging. But still we're looking at couple of % of GDP — not earth-shattering 7/

      15 replies 38 retweets 307 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Sorry, here's SSA link 8/ https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2020/VI_G2_OASDHI_GDP.html#200732 …

      5 replies 23 retweets 185 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      Secular stagnation is a problem for maintaining full employment *through monetary policy alone*. But you can also use fiscal stimulus — and low interest rates mean debt is not a serious problem 9/

      20 replies 42 retweets 367 likes
      Show this thread
      Paul Krugman‏Verified account @paulkrugman Jul 25

      So the economic case for pro-natalism is really weak — so you're left with some kind of "family values" argument (I mean, look at how fatherhood has mellowed and matured Donald Trump) or, not-so-hidden subtext, the need for more white Christians ... 10/

      12:16 PM - 25 Jul 2021
      • 86 Retweets
      • 707 Likes
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      709 replies 86 retweets 707 likes
        1. BetterWay‏ @BetterWay16 Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          It's not only about birthrates, it's also about equality, to make it possible for women to join the workforce AND have children. In Sweden, parents can share 18 months paid parental leave, with job security.

          15 replies 1 retweet 39 likes
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        2. KnobbyTigerEgos‏ @KnobbyTigerEgos Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          Figures here are from the US. Look at Japan and the pro-natalist position gets a whole lot stronger?

          1 reply 2 retweets 32 likes
        3. Atheist (2008)‏ @atheist2008 Jul 25
          Replying to @KnobbyTigerEgos @paulkrugman

          Japan is evidence that per capita growth and population reduction can occur simultaneously. Japan has no good reason to increase population, maybe except to maintain its military power

          2 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jack Dawkins‏ @ArtfulDodger183 Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          Isn’t pro-natalism pro-teachers unions? If people don’t have enough kids, that will hurt the teachers unions, amirite?

          5 replies 0 retweets 32 likes
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        1. Jason Rinn‏ @jrinn Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          The other argument is that having children should be a choice that is not restrained by economics, but by personal choice.

          6 replies 4 retweets 82 likes
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        2. Keith Bellairs‏ @KeithBellairs Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          Original reason for wanting more children is called cannon fodder. More men == more soldiers.

          14 replies 2 retweets 34 likes
        3. Steve Goldstein‏ @SteveGoldstein1 Jul 25
          Replying to @KeithBellairs @paulkrugman

          No. Far more people throughout history have died of starvation than warfare. The more people in a family/ clan/ tribe / village who grew food the less chance of starvation.

          2 replies 1 retweet 61 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Roland Stephen @outlyingobs‏ @outlyingobs Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          Polish govt initiated fairly lavish child-based family payments for pro-natalist reasons. Didn’t move the dial on fertility but really helped with poverty

          2 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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        2. Doug Orleans‏ @DougOrleans Jul 25
          Replying to @paulkrugman

          More people = more labor = more wealth.

          6 replies 2 retweets 18 likes
        3. Joe Blam‏ @joe_blam Jul 25
          Replying to @DougOrleans @paulkrugman

          Just means fewer resources for more people and worsening quality of life. The way we are going it will deepen the wealth gap.

          9 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
        4. End of conversation

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