The reason contrarians are particularly successful in tech is because it’s a business necessarily plagued by trends.
I think it's because the future is often so surprising. There are lots of things that are bad ideas till they're not.
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Plus contrarian betting creates the most notable outliers (survival bias)
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"Till" being the important part. Good timing is
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Like SMS in
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Pretty much true for all big ideas. Making flying machines seemed like a terrible idea till it wasn't. NeuralNets were bad till ...
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Reminds me of hedge fund mgr's. "Winners rise losers fade. So while individuals may gain/lose reputation, the IDEA of prediction does well."pic.twitter.com/ihXaas5NvJ
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