Does that mean investing will become harder as well?
-
-
-
Interesting question, but I think not. Early stage is mostly judging people. Later stage has numbers to look at.
-
Very true. But it gets harder to get to later stage, then?
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Another underrated issue is that getting the right result is not a prerequisite for having made the right prediction.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Future developments will require new knowledge, so predicting them requires most of that knowledge, too. If we had it we'd almost be there.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
See also the Butterfly Effect: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect …. Explains why throwing the same dice roll twice is nigh impossible.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
policy beats planning
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Reminds of integrating acceleration from an IMU to get position estimate. It's hard.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Parlaying bets
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
But when developments create new successful developments the error rate is the less important thing.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This was my lesson from trying my hand at Playoff brackets. Get round 1 wrong, & the remainder of your predictions lose meaning
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Ha! The other reason is because we don't know what will happen.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Probably doesn't apply to global warming predictions though, right?
@ScottAdamsSaysThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
But some things are easy to predict. Moore's law, Swanson's law, eventual demise of civilizations, cities tend to form on waterways, etc
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Proof: tape-measure & cut a length of wood (1). Use (1) to estimate 2 & cut. Use (2) to estimate (3) & cut. Rpt to (10). Tape-measure 10. ?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
The reason it’s hard to predict the future is that our physical and social environments are poorly designed.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Error correction also shifts foundation of later builds creating stranded assets and changing direction and pace of future development
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.