Juicero was not created to head-fake people with a grudge against Silicon Valley into outing themselves, but it worked that way in practice.
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Founders' ambitions and crazy-ideas-that-aren't are hard to distinguish from BS. So some amount of credulity is optimal.
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Consider the effects of overconfidence. On average, any given founder still loses, those with a portfolio of overconfident founders win
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I know VCs tend favor kill-or-cure strategies, and often warn founders about it.
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The reason is more sinister than just the portfolio effect though. There's also the opportunity cost of the board seat.
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The phenomenon is not as bad as it used to be though. And founders benefit from portfolio effect too, because they can start multiple cos.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Consider short-term incentives for BS & Kahneman's evidence about the prevelance of dangerous overconfidencehttps://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/18/daniel-kahneman-books-interview …
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