they also thought there was less than a 20% chance of him winning the day before the election.
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Possibly. But this is easier to predict, because you're predicting what political insiders will do, not fickle voters.
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Feels like Dems are on track to nominate a party insider (a'la Dole, McCain, Kerry, Dukakis), and Trump wins re-election.
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not strictly true…10/11 means they think there’s exactly a 50% chance, and they’re taking juice on the bet.
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Only a 5% chance of the Nobel peace prize this year
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Allen Lichtman only one who predicted t.'s victory Through a pattern recognition model Was ignored before elections sidelined after
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check out Scott Adams who also predicted it.
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Thanks Adams/tramp seem like similar pathologies A. Saw what t. recognized about elections Lichtman built a system
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Well actuarial tables say 11% of that is just Trump dying in office.
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Haha - no chance he will ever resign - impeached though very possible
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I like that probability
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Like so many startup ideas, Trump impeachment is really easy to imagine, but tough has hell to execute.
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That's <50:50 and same as it's been.
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I had placed a bet: actually got better odds on later (year 4) than sooner (2,3). British bookie.
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Nitpick: "Leave office via impeachment" is a much stronger statement than "impeached". The latter just means starting a trial.
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@alphaideas I think there is better than 50% chance of Ladbrokes' thinking getting wrongThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I was hoping more for first year... but as long as it's not 4 that will be a good thing
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do you see the arbitrage opportunity
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