Paul GrahamVerified account

Ackman, Einhorn, and John Paulson have each made exactly one great trade. The rest has been noise.https://twitter.com/planmaestro/status/841751717553283073 …

What were they?

Ackman long credit default swaps on mortgage insurers pre-crisis. Brilliant. Since then, 'mixed bag' is being generous.

Paulson short mortgage backed securities, 2007 (GS created for him to short). Since then he's lost >$1B in a Chinese forestry ponzi.

Einhorn had Lehman short in 2007. He also had Allied Capital short before, so he had two great ones. But those were his big scores.

As assets under management grow, fewer opportunities to score big, but they're all scraping big management fees on their reputations.

Are big wins more often short than long?

biggest wins are almost always long. (Same with you guys... long w/ founders @ low basis).