Ackman, Einhorn, and John Paulson have each made exactly one great trade. The rest has been noise.https://twitter.com/planmaestro/status/841751717553283073 …
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Ackman long credit default swaps on mortgage insurers pre-crisis. Brilliant. Since then, 'mixed bag' is being generous.
Paulson short mortgage backed securities, 2007 (GS created for him to short). Since then he's lost >$1B in a Chinese forestry ponzi.
Einhorn had Lehman short in 2007. He also had Allied Capital short before, so he had two great ones. But those were his big scores.
As assets under management grow, fewer opportunities to score big, but they're all scraping big management fees on their reputations.
Are big wins more often short than long?
biggest wins are almost always long. (Same with you guys... long w/ founders @ low basis).
big long wins are either Buffett hold forever style, Bezos/Gates style, or David Tepper loaded long banks 2009.
shorts are tougher and more often contrarian but can have enormous payoff, esp w leverage (which of course can cut both ways)
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