that is the essence of Occam's razor.
All other things being equal, assume the more boring explanation is true.
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No, that says prefer the simpler explanation,
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most people are stupid as fuck?
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"Mr Roger's Nail Clippers"
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you should write an essay about managing bias in human reasoning.
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but we don't have prior knowledge to judge whether things are equal. eg Charisma vs Sexism vs Campaign ground game vs Voter ID vs…
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but that requires elusive rational thought
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Occam's butter knife
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Truth has been spoken!
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