It seems obvious that Comey cost Clinton the election. It was that close that the 2+ point hit did the trickhttps://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/797217982367825921 …
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Replying to @rajatsuri
Maybe not. You know how when VCs don't like a startup they find reasons to believe the startup will fail?
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Replying to @paulg @rajatsuri
It seemed the same in this election. It was only because people were lukewarm about Hillary that they cared about the emails.
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Replying to @paulg
for sure. She seemed unusually susceptible to these seemingly minor events. But the Comey letter was still a spark for Trump in polls
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Replying to @rajatsuri @paulg
without that spark , her lead would still have declined , but at a slower pace. Crucial in such a tight race
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Replying to @rajatsuri @paulg
feels like timing is everything here. If the election took place day after the third debate , HRC would have won in a landslide
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Replying to @rajatsuri
If the election were decided by polls, yes. But showing up to vote is another matter.
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Replying to @paulg
it is, but the polling error actually turned out to be fairly low in reality, ~2 pts. She was leading by 6-7 after debates
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It was higher in swing states:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/ …
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Replying to @paulg
yep, you're right, 4-6 pts in the Midwest. But without Comey, she would still have narrowly won. And she only lost FL by 1.2 pts too
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