Because winning on Trump also means you lose everything because of end of the world, end of the dollar, stock crash, etc.
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a volume disbalance would normally be an indication that people disagree with the odds.
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not all such actions have a rational explanation. An example is the odds/volumes with the BRExit on Smarkets. Arbitrage?
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didnt you think so? bet remain move line then buy short positions in financials, nobody saw it coming
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people like to bet on things they like (see sports betting.) International folks are unlikely to be Trump supporters.
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Good odds tend to drive volume, especially since the overwhelming majority of all people are followers and not leaders.
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Selection bias? Likely that the Trump Cohort is under-represented among participants in prediction markets.
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you are not reading it correctly I think. $81M has traded in the market. Hilary volumes are about 2x trump volumes.
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I suspect you are looking at amt available to take at the current best price which is not really correlated with amt traded
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here is the volume traded on Hilary and the implied odds of winning over the life of the marketpic.twitter.com/dJUEJkf87k
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here is the implied odds of winning and amount traded on trump over the life of the marketpic.twitter.com/dpnL6jO3jb
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that's fascinating
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markets seem to retain a higher probability for trump than the poll forecasts
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