a volume disbalance would normally be an indication that people disagree with the odds.
Why is 10x more being bet on Hillary than Trump on Betfair? I understand why the odds differ, but why the volume? https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419 …
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People who bet on
@realDonaldTrump hedging?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Selection bias? Likely that the Trump Cohort is under-represented among participants in prediction markets.
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Because winning on Trump also means you lose everything because of end of the world, end of the dollar, stock crash, etc.
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for trump action you should multiply by odds, still a 3X difference though
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not all such actions have a rational explanation. An example is the odds/volumes with the BRExit on Smarkets. Arbitrage?
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didnt you think so? bet remain move line then buy short positions in financials, nobody saw it coming
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This Question has no answer. You would have to ask each & every Punter why they wagered what they wagered.
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A Bookies goal is not to create a true probability, don't try to think of a Bookies odds as a Win Probability.
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- arbitrage (mismatched odds) - different odds (↑ odds ⇒ lower bet to win
$N) - hedging (Trump winning perceived as bad for USD) -
I highly doubt that there is a lot of arbitrage going on here, tuff to Arb fixed odds bets. Spread betting much better for Arb.
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