Others may be reassured to hear Trump has only a 15% chance of winning, but it terrifies me. In Silicon Valley 15% is a good chance.
The expected value calculation for Trump winning is the same as for a nuclear accident. Low probability x really bad = real worry.
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he's 0%
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A node Theory of Trump Winning = 100 - (Individual Voting Power (political awareness) * Network Strength + Network Power)
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try french: probabilité vs pénibilité ("painbility" ?) of a risk best described with parachute malfunction ;-)
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When it was nearly a dead heat,
@peterthiel had the risk:reward trump bet bang on
but nobody else considered it that way @paulgThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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are there any YC founders openly supporting Trump?
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if only you had lots of money, you could hedge such bets with investments in HRC
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The argument to vote is similar. Small chance to flip x big impact to the budget = thousands to millions of $ in altruistic EV
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That is a really good point.
End of conversation
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Brexit had also low odds...
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