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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 13 Oct 2016

    Others may be reassured to hear Trump has only a 15% chance of winning, but it terrifies me. In Silicon Valley 15% is a good chance.

    10:29 PM - 13 Oct 2016
    • 1,136 Retweets
    • 2,959 Likes
    • Crewiser CarpeNY eve a. Andrew Holladay Nick Webb Andrea Tessore camille re bourn 🐲 Tatsuya Honda Stephen W. Gee
    127 replies 1,136 retweets 2,959 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The expected value calculation for Trump winning is the same as for a nuclear accident. Low probability x really bad = real worry.

        10 replies 93 retweets 224 likes
      3. Gavan Wilhite‏ @GavanWilhite 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The argument to vote is similar. Small chance to flip x big impact to the budget = thousands to millions of $ in altruistic EV

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @GavanWilhite

        That is a really good point.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Sam Sabri‏ @samsabri 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        thankfully this isn't SV

        1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @samsabri

        Expected value is calculated the same everywhere.

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jason Wong‏ @jasonwong 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Means there's 4 weeks left in the election. 15% at this time is as much as you can ask for. Way better than the 55/45 2 weeks ago.

        2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @jasonwong

        I'm hoping.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Jason Wong‏ @jasonwong 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        If nothing insane happens in 4 weeks Dems win. The problem is something insane happens weekly/daily. Mostly, to them.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Moe Abbas‏ @realmoeabbas 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        does not work that way. One 15% chance is not the same as thousands of 15% chances

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @realmoeabbas @Moeabbas1

        SV isn't only investors. Founders constantly make such bets.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Moe Abbas‏ @realmoeabbas 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        foolish founder who bets on 15%. Founders influence probabilities so a set ratio doesn't work on a case by case basis.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Joshua Kaufman‏ @jmk 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        thank goodness the rest of the world doesn't work like Silicon Valley.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @jmk

        Expected value is calculated the same everywhere.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Joshua Kaufman‏ @jmk 14 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        true, but that doesn't mean 15% is a good chance of winning.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. 𝙿𝚑𝚒𝚕𝚒𝚙 𝙲𝚛𝚊𝚠𝚏o𝚛𝚍‏ @wiscoDude 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Yeah, I won't rest easy until this hits zero. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner …pic.twitter.com/4xTPLlGHSB

        0 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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      1. Blockchain McCoinface‏ @CaptainFwiffo 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        @NateSilver538 Most people wouldn't play even one round of Russian roulette, but that's what we're doing.

        0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Andrew‏ @andypeepo 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        a lot of disenfranchised people agree with his message; it'll be much closer than people think.

        2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. sum  👏 one‏ @enargins 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg @NateSilver538

        Not to mention 4 weeks is an eternity in elections. We don't know what things will pop out against HC in coming weeks.

        4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Karen Holloway‏ @Alagai 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @enargins @paulg @NateSilver538

        . .. or DT

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. sum  👏 one‏ @enargins 13 Oct 2016
        Replying to @Alagai @paulg @NateSilver538

        Well, yes. But that would just reduce the 15% to even less. Not much of a change.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation

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