The expected value calculation for Trump winning is the same as for a nuclear accident. Low probability x really bad = real worry.
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The argument to vote is similar. Small chance to flip x big impact to the budget = thousands to millions of $ in altruistic EV
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That is a really good point.
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thankfully this isn't SV
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Expected value is calculated the same everywhere.
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Means there's 4 weeks left in the election. 15% at this time is as much as you can ask for. Way better than the 55/45 2 weeks ago.
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I'm hoping.
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If nothing insane happens in 4 weeks Dems win. The problem is something insane happens weekly/daily. Mostly, to them.
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does not work that way. One 15% chance is not the same as thousands of 15% chances
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SV isn't only investors. Founders constantly make such bets.
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foolish founder who bets on 15%. Founders influence probabilities so a set ratio doesn't work on a case by case basis.
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thank goodness the rest of the world doesn't work like Silicon Valley.
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Expected value is calculated the same everywhere.
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true, but that doesn't mean 15% is a good chance of winning.
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Yeah, I won't rest easy until this hits zero. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner …pic.twitter.com/4xTPLlGHSB
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@NateSilver538 Most people wouldn't play even one round of Russian roulette, but that's what we're doing.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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a lot of disenfranchised people agree with his message; it'll be much closer than people think.
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Not to mention 4 weeks is an eternity in elections. We don't know what things will pop out against HC in coming weeks.
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. .. or DT
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Well, yes. But that would just reduce the 15% to even less. Not much of a change.
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