Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

Tweets

Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 11 Oct 2016

    Prediction markets say Trump has a 15% chance of winning. Sobering thought: roll a 1 and Donald Trump is president. https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=roll+a+die …

    2:05 AM - 11 Oct 2016
    • 38 Retweets
    • 73 Likes
    • Actual Human I Swear Yury Pronin james cranston gwern digitai Pranav Ahuja 😎 rana rauf jacky 梁 Seano
    26 replies 38 retweets 73 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Thomas PritchaaAAGH!!‏ @tpritc 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        I just rolled two ones in a row. Shit.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @tpritc

        You win two terms of him.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Navin Kabra‏ @ngkabra 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        America is now officially in a game of Russian roulette!

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Theodidactus‏ @Theodidactus 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg @RichardDooling

        just about the odds of losing Russian roulette with a six-shooter

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. jacob  🎛️‏ @SparseJacobian 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        https://xkcd.com/221/ 

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Jonathan Elder‏ @JonathanRElder 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Is there a saving throw against Wisdom? #DungeonsAndDragons

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Jordan Biserkov‏ @JBiserkov 6 Nov 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        roll a 1 OR a 2 and Donald Trump is president (35.0% chance according to @FiveThirtyEight right now)http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1.  🎃 🎃Name cannot be blank 🎃 🎃‏ @OneDadTalks2U 12 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        lol #desperation

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Basil Al-Dajane‏ @baldajan 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        rolled a 1 on my first try - no joke, originally thought it was a link to roll a dice to 1

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. # Alabama Deplorable‏ @mcf1218 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        BREXIT was given a 77% chance of NOT leaving the EU the day of the vote. BREXIT to leave won by 4%

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. New conversation
      2. Sage Weil‏ @liewegas 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Bringing new meaning to the term 'russian roulette'

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dave Neary‏ @nearyd 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @liewegas @paulg

        Seems more likely that Pence becomes president at this stage.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Evan Daniel‏ @evanbd 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        in convenient website form with live odds: http://shlegeris.com/dice/ 

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Bonnie Kavoussi‏Verified account @bkavoussi 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        I wrote about the expected value of the election here: http://bonniekavoussi.blogspot.com/2016/10/why-its-still-hard-to-feel-calm-about.html … Still low b/c a Trump presidency would be so negative.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Bonnie Kavoussi‏Verified account @bkavoussi 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Agreed. The election is like a one-time roll of the dice, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Aaron Brown‏ @arundelo 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        .@paulg There's a site that scrapes http://electionbettingodds.com  and rolls a die (of appropriate probability) for you: http://shlegeris.com/dice/ 

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. AJ Lui 🏃‍♀️‏ @ajlui 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        1 came out after 6 rolls

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Daniel Drehmer‏ @danieldrehmer 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        gosh, hope this probability falls to one digit percent

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Merijn Verstraaten‏ @comerijn 11 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        I rolled a 1 thrice in a row, so...ugh, good luck? :p

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2018 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info