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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 29 Sep 2016

    This data from Mattermark shows something I constantly warn about. The initial drop shocks complacent founders.pic.twitter.com/W38rGPRdS5

    11:31 PM - 29 Sep 2016
    • 307 Retweets
    • 473 Likes
    • Darmawan Alex Biet The Zoom Agency Ricardo Basto Manning Katherine Keith Wasserman Friendly Compass Brett Forester Karon-T
    17 replies 307 retweets 473 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Karen E. Robinson‏ @kerobinso 29 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        guess it's not because of a lot of nice exits after a seed round but before series A

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @kerobinso

        Such exits as there are are rarely nice.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Michel Jansen‏ @dawuss 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        is this % of companies that raised (which it seems) or success rate of companies that tried to raise series X (equally interesting)?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @dawuss

        The former, but in the beginning that is close to the latter.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. Claus Dahl‏ @Claus 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        if you do them round for round you get the idea survival approx 40% per roundpic.twitter.com/QQ4gDUoV7U

        0 replies 2 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Claus Dahl‏ @Claus 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        but the numbers don't support the idea of an initial drop. The log-scale curve suggests a steady rate https://mattermark.com/startup-graduation-rate-surprisingly-low/ …

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      3. Jason D. Rowley‏ @Jason_Rowley 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @Claus @paulg

        Hey, author of the post here. The straight-ish lines on the log chart indicate exponential decay in survival rate, not linear

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Claus Dahl‏ @Claus 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @Jason_Rowley @paulg

        yes, no initial drop. survival rate similar for each round

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Rohan Malhotra‏ @rm_infinite 2 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        shocking that this shocks founders.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Γνῶθι σεαυτ‏ @techcatcher 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        "complacent founders" a term that can only originate in the valley of silicon. Should I laugh?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jeremy Chatelaine‏ @jchatelaine 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        at the same time, if you are profitable, why always raise more? Could be that founders don't want to use the raise-money road no?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Oliver Mochizuki  🇬🇧 🇯🇵‏ @OllyMochizuki 4 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        @derekahmedzai the more rounds you go through the harder it gets, seems about right!!!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Eric Lobdell‏ @selamefekili 1 Oct 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        I think I've only ever heard "matriculation" in reference to academic achievement. The title of this is Vconfusing.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Mohammed Jalil‏ @i_am_jalil 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        2010 being the 'best' year. Why is that, only 2 years after Lehman ?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Brian Topping‏ @briantopping 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        wow! Thanks for sharing that. Raise early, raise often, spend nothing, I guess. ;)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Amit Dayal‏ @dayalamit 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        @Mattermark it would be interesting to see what happens after F..IPO, M&A etc. And timeline for that?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. KevinKrease‏ @kevinkrease 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        so raising will (and should) get harder as you go?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. James 'Crypto Listing Fees' Clark  🎃 😱 🤦🏼‍♂️‏ @mr_james_c 30 Sep 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        You'd think that was commonsense.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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