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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 21 Aug 2016

    Current interest rates are so anomalous historically. I worry I'm going to kick myself later for not investigating.

    6:22 AM - 21 Aug 2016
    • 29 Retweets
    • 110 Likes
    • Keith Wasserman james miao Jonathan Woods Suhail Khalid James Koshigoe Felix Chanthapanya Александр Дасаев Rose Sun Gregor Welton
    20 replies 29 retweets 110 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Ari Isaacs‏ @ariisaacs 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        seriously - put 1% of your NW strong short on capital, to hedge the cost of everything else as a function of capital if nothing else

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 22 Aug 2016
        Replying to @ariisaacs

        How do you put money strong short on capital?

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Ari Isaacs‏ @ariisaacs 22 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        similar - long on anything with relatively predictable value and set supply (some commodities) b/c priced inversely to capital

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 22 Aug 2016
        Replying to @ariisaacs

        E.g. farmland?

        3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Ari Isaacs‏ @ariisaacs 22 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        to an extent. Same logic as when capital markets are risky investors flock to real estate and gold.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Bill Clerico‏Verified account @billclerico 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        and are a big contributor to Bay Area housing prices

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @billclerico

        At first I read this as "@paulg and I are..."

        0 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Peter McGraw‏Verified account @PeterMcGraw 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        in what? And how? Borrowing to invest in the market?

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @PeterMcGraw

        I'm mainly worried about avoiding disaster, not making money.

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. halvarflake‏ @halvarflake 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Keynes predicted that capitalism's success would lead to capital no longer being scarce. Perhaps this is happening? Not sure either.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. halvarflake‏ @halvarflake 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @halvarflake @paulg

        He called it "euthanasia of the rentier" back then - if capital quits being scarce, interest rates have to drop.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Dylan Pellegrene‏ @DylanPellegrene 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        was literally just thinking the same thing

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Daniel Olshansky‏ @olshansky 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @tushar_io @paulg

        something will have to budge. I think new tech will create a large productivity increase which will ignite change.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Gregor Macdonald‏ @GregorMacdonald 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        But Paul, it was the high rate regime in the 2H of 20thC than was anomalous. Slow growth and low rates are historical norm.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. ريم محمد أسعد®‏Verified account @Reem_Asaad 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @GregorMacdonald @paulg

        the excessive intervention by the gov proved worse than otherwise (Volker/Regan) couldn't help stagflation.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. 1 more reply
      1. Jim Zellmer‏ @jimzellmer 21 Aug 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        James Grant's books and newsletters are worth a look: http://www.grantspub.com  @GrantsPub

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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