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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Jun 2016

    Trump got a boost in the prediction markets as people realized this shit can actually happen. But only 2%.

    8:36 AM - 24 Jun 2016
    • 57 Retweets
    • 129 Likes
    • Wes Hather Adam D'Angelo Tommy Nicholas Chas Lawrence Russell Smith Shane Frykholm Tom Mullaly John Milinovich よぐりな
    18 replies 57 retweets 129 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. David Freer‏ @mrfreer 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        didn't the prediction markets get the brexit wrong? Maybe people are afraid to tell pollsters?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @mrfreer

        Very possibly. A broader version of the Bradley Effect.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Danny Nemer‏ @DannyNemer 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Markets were 80% for Remain up to last night. Do you still believe they are credible, or were Brexit predictive challenges different?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Karen E. Robinson‏ @kerobinso 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @DannyNemer @paulg

        people who vote Leave, people who support Trump do not participate in prediction markets. Or even live near ppl who do.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Danny Nemer‏ @DannyNemer 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @kerobinso @paulg

        True, but those voters are polled, and the polling results influence the prediction markets. http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Karen E. Robinson‏ @kerobinso 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @DannyNemer @paulg

        True. can you explain how wrong the prediction markets have been another way than lack of proximity?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. MattKeck‏ @MattKeck 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @kerobinso @DannyNemer @paulg

        explanation: prediction odds based on amount of money bet. Fewer Remain bets vs Leave bets, but far more money

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. mike‏ @michael_yu 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        .@paulg brexit was also sitting <25%. maybe we should take into account systemic bias - the poor don't play prediction markets

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. AlteredQualia‏ @alteredq 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        As signal it works both ways: "shit may happen" mobilizes both sides. What changes is proportion of voters vs non-voters/ undecided.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jared Cosulich‏ @jaredcosulich 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        prediction markets don't seem to be accurately predicting these events...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. halvarflake‏ @halvarflake 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The people that participate in prediction markets are kinda out of touch with reality - odds were 4:1 for Bremain 48h ago...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Edan Yago [giving away mostly opinions]‏ @EdanYago 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Trump has higher chances in prediction markets then Brexit did. Place your bets.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Manuel Hernandez‏ @manuelhe 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @EdanYago @paulg

        does the predictor take the electorate process into account?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Edan Yago [giving away mostly opinions]‏ @EdanYago 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @manuelhe @paulg

        In theory yes. In theory...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. nik cubrilovic‏ @nikcub 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        explain utter failure of prediction market in this case? We had polls, all info ..

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Manuel Hernandez‏ @manuelhe 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @nikcub @paulg

        all the predictors were in London?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. nik cubrilovic‏ @nikcub 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @manuelhe @paulg

        you'd hope they bet with data not anecdotes - was supposed to be promise of prediction markets

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Manuel Hernandez‏ @manuelhe 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @nikcub @paulg

        what data have they got? Polls?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. nik cubrilovic‏ @nikcub 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @manuelhe @paulg

        yep and "wisdom of the crowds"

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. End of conversation

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