didn't the prediction markets get the brexit wrong? Maybe people are afraid to tell pollsters?
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Very possibly. A broader version of the Bradley Effect.
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Markets were 80% for Remain up to last night. Do you still believe they are credible, or were Brexit predictive challenges different?
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people who vote Leave, people who support Trump do not participate in prediction markets. Or even live near ppl who do.
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True, but those voters are polled, and the polling results influence the prediction markets. http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf …
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True. can you explain how wrong the prediction markets have been another way than lack of proximity?
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explanation: prediction odds based on amount of money bet. Fewer Remain bets vs Leave bets, but far more money
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@paulg brexit was also sitting <25%. maybe we should take into account systemic bias - the poor don't play prediction markets - 1 more reply
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As signal it works both ways: "shit may happen" mobilizes both sides. What changes is proportion of voters vs non-voters/ undecided.
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prediction markets don't seem to be accurately predicting these events...
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The people that participate in prediction markets are kinda out of touch with reality - odds were 4:1 for Bremain 48h ago...
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Trump has higher chances in prediction markets then Brexit did. Place your bets.
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does the predictor take the electorate process into account?
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In theory yes. In theory...
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explain utter failure of prediction market in this case? We had polls, all info ..
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all the predictors were in London?
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you'd hope they bet with data not anecdotes - was supposed to be promise of prediction markets
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what data have they got? Polls?
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yep and "wisdom of the crowds"
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