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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 22 Jun 2016

    The prediction markets now give the Republicans only a 22% chance of winning, the lowest so far.pic.twitter.com/uyEIQzzYGX

    10:22 PM - 22 Jun 2016
    • 107 Retweets
    • 184 Likes
    • Judith Stevenson Vamsi Sakhamuri Victor parker T'is McF Justin Yang DIN Is Noise Sayem Chaklader Kristie Moy Jennifer L Wong
    19 replies 107 retweets 184 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Rajat Suri‏ @rajatsuri 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        are you refreshing on a daily basis too at this point?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @rajatsuri

        At least.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Paul Turner‏ @skyviewPaul 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        sweet. Just need to go 22% lower and I'll be happy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Ocean Quigley‏ @oceanquigley 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        With any luck, predictwise is going to have to increase the visible range shortly.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Luke Groesbeck‏ @lately 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        chatted about prediction markets for awhile with a campaign manager (at a Vegas blackjack table). he wasn't a huge fan. markets won.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Jose A. Moreno‏ @Cabungo 22 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        @SigfridoPe

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Felix S Klock II‏ @pnkfelix 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        .@paulg prediction markets also said #brexit => remain. I'm treating that result as wake-up call for upcoming USA election

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Cody ☕️ 🦀‏ @valarauca1 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @pnkfelix @paulg

        the only metric to watch in UK is bookies betting odds which were in favor of leave for the past week.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Felix S Klock II‏ @pnkfelix 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @valarauca1 @paulg

        I looked at e.g. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/22/bookies-see-the-big-bets-going-for-the-uk-to-stay-in-eu.html … ; in hindsight, see claim big bettors skewed oddshttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/something-strange-emerges-when-looking-behind-brexit-bookie-odds …

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Arch‏ @archer_mcgee 24 Jul 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        They bet the same for Brexit. Check out @FiveThirtyEight current prediction. Based on real polls. It's movingpic.twitter.com/S8n8Kob3Uj

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Arch‏ @archer_mcgee 24 Jul 2016
        Replying to @archer_mcgee @paulg @FiveThirtyEight

        Here's the pre-Brexit chart. Don't underestimate protectionism and anti-immigrant sentiment.pic.twitter.com/cfv7vHdWuT

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jonathan Wheeler  🌎‏ @hyperbitcoinizr 26 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Congratulations to Republicans on nominating a virtually unelectable nominee!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Marco Craveiro‏ @MarcoCraveiro 24 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The same people that predicted Remain here in the UK? I'd read those with a grain of salt...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. BongBong‏ @BongBong 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        @GiddeonFox Those the same prediction markets that said Brexit was impossible?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. kurt westphal‏ @kurtwestphal 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        not very surprising

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Neil Durbin‏ @durbin 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        they also gave the Cavs a 4% chance of winning the NBA finals.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Kurt Pimentel‏ @Kurtpimentel 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        oh it's a shit show unfortunately.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Herman Ng‏ @heymanitsherman 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The warriors were also overwhelming favorites to win the NBA Finals. Just sayin'

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Richard Jowsey‏ @RichardAJowsey 23 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Landslide be comin' at ya, Paul.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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