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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 4 Jun 2016

    In the last couple days, Trump's odds in the prediction markets plummeted. Anyone know why?pic.twitter.com/Wz28JDItRQ

    4:38 PM - 4 Jun 2016
    • 51 Retweets
    • 119 Likes
    • David Drobik Steve Juanmi Rocks Lavanya Niel Guaman johnyopp Kristen Smith Nandita PredictWise
    53 replies 51 retweets 119 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. James Pethokoukis‏Verified account @JimPethokoukis 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Noticed that too. After comments about the Trump University judge, it seems less likely there will be a pIvot to kinder, gentler RJT

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @JimPethokoukis

        That is my initial theory too. That he is not going to try to act moderate to win the general election, because he can't.

        6 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      4. Rich Danielson‏ @richdanielson 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg @JimPethokoukis

        He knows he can't win? Then what? What is he doing? It looks like public relations and business suicide.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. John Clyde‏ @johnclyde 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Hillary took a brief dip on uncertainty around emails and now that news cycle is over

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @johnclyde

        If that were the reason the change would be more gradual.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Bruce Hoult‏ @BruceHoult 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        such a fast swing often indicates a HRC insider with $10k or $100k to burn is rigging the prediction.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @BruceHoult

        Can't be that; the Betfair price did the same thing.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Bruce Hoult‏ @BruceHoult 5 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        expected. If prices diverge, people arbitrage them and take a risk free profit.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Michael Clemens‏Verified account @m_clem 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        The Judge Curiel scandal. Naked racism of the campaign exposed.

        0 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Kevin Fox  🦊‏Verified account @kfury 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        I assume it was Hillary's eviscerating foreign policy speech the other day.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Kevin Fox  🦊‏Verified account @kfury 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @kfury @paulg

        Also, if there was ever a chart to not clip the Y-axis. Jeez.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Yuri Sagalov‏Verified account @yuris 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Hillary’s last speech was incredibly well received in the press/mediahttp://www.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-foreign-policy-speech/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. John Papadakis‏ @weakwire 7 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Here is whyhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/07/the-trump-bump-is-misleading-public-opinion-is-trending-steadily-toward-the-democratic-nominee-for-president/ …

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      1. Bram Cohen‏Verified account @bramcohen 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Noise in thin markets?

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Rodolfo Rosini  ☕️ ✨‏ @rodolfor 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Hilary changed comms strategy and no longer going after facts but chasing emotions. Follow @jonfavs for more analysis

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Mathieu Le Roux‏ @matleroux 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        God finally heard us, non americans?

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Anshu Śharma‏ @anshublog 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Hillary's solid attach speech showed how he can be exposed. Weak bully.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Joel Adams‏ @joelcadams 4 Jun 2016
        Replying to @paulg

        Since it's by party (not candidate), Ryan's endorsement further decreased likelihood of a more electable non-Trump alternative.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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