Sanders vs Trump compared to Clinton vs Trump: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ …pic.twitter.com/bn4IGWjoKq
Why so different from the prediction markets, which give Hillary a 2/3 probability of winning?
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on MTP yesterday group said Trump may peak around 42/43 as party rallies, but Clinton may get 70% Sanders crowd, upping to 50
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@semil@paulg@cdixon Q20, column M. Clinton already gets 82% of Dem primary voters in NH, is tied w/ Trump http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2016/05/30/FPU_may16-tables.pdf …
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Assumption is that the party will unite around Clinton when she wins the nomination, like how Republicans coalesced to Trump.
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(which is what gave him this boost in the polls in the first place)
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Polls indicates the popular vote, but the electoral college looks fairly challenging for Trump. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html …
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’Who will you vote for’ and ‘Who will win’ are different questions
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1) Predictions lag polls (expect the prediction market to soften), 2) Predictions aren't greathttps://twitter.com/nlothian/status/737076190293327872 …
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Prediction markets include impact of electoral college vote and some Sanders voters switching.
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@semil@ilyasu you guys should also check out http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu too! -
oops this tweet didn't send, but we do a lot more than a simple average on the site! Feedback appreciated :)
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