Sanders vs Trump compared to Clinton vs Trump: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ …pic.twitter.com/bn4IGWjoKq
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Assumption is that the party will unite around Clinton when she wins the nomination, like how Republicans coalesced to Trump.
(which is what gave him this boost in the polls in the first place)
The polls also vary a lot in how they deal with 3rd party support/undecided voters. Lots of people still undecided.
Polls indicates the popular vote, but the electoral college looks fairly challenging for Trump. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/04/upshot/electoral-map-trump-clinton.html …
on MTP yesterday group said Trump may peak around 42/43 as party rallies, but Clinton may get 70% Sanders crowd, upping to 50
sanders (socialism) hasn't actually been vetted. Kasich used the electability arg also, no one bought for same reason
’Who will you vote for’ and ‘Who will win’ are different questions
sanders supporters who haven't acquiesced to hillary inevitability?
@semil @ilyasu you guys should also check out http://electionanalytics.cs.illinois.edu too!
oops this tweet didn't send, but we do a lot more than a simple average on the site! Feedback appreciated :)
Prediction markets include impact of electoral college vote and some Sanders voters switching.
1) Predictions lag polls (expect the prediction market to soften), 2) Predictions aren't greathttps://twitter.com/nlothian/status/737076190293327872 …
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