@paulg How do you know if a business is seasonal? Or should you just assume that it is and try to estimate how much, based on past results?
-
-
-
@cperciva You've been doing Tarsnap long enough that you ought to be able to see it in the revenue graphs. -
@paulg Well, for 3 years in a row Q1/Q2 had low growth while Q3/Q4 had high growth... but the past few years that pattern hasn't shown up. -
@paulg So I was hoping that you had some magic way of figuring out what constitutes "normal". :-) -
@cperciva Make a graph of avg revenue growth rate per month for your whole history. Flat = normal, departures therefrom = seasonality. -
@paulg Ok, so basically assume there's a seasonal pattern and do a least-squares fit. Got it. :-)
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
@paulg Corollary (from early Stripe experience): metrics are an emotional rollercoaster until you accumulate the seasonality dataset. -
-
-
-
New conversation -
-
-
@paulg@alanknottcraig In my early 20's I had a club, no one told me about winter. First lesson in cashflow as a kid.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
@paulg I have helped some of our global customers and since most seasonal aspects are not global it makes analyzing comparables really hard.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
@paulg seems pretty straightforward...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.