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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 9 Sep 2012

    Black Swan Farming: http://paulgraham.com/swan.html 

    4:32 PM - 9 Sep 2012
    • 222 Retweets
    • 143 Likes
    • Erick Miller Jonah Cacioppe Moejii Osman Lars mike rizzi uǝǝpɐʎnɓ sıuǝp Rob van Maris Adam Parsell Cole Brickley
    15 replies 222 retweets 143 likes
      1. Jeff Pashalides‏ @jeffpash 11 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg Curious for thoughts on implications of this analysis for founders

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      1. Jakub Krzych‏ @jimiasty 10 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg It seems #startup valuations follow the same power law distribution we see in nature where 20% of startups take 80% of funding, etc.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Noah Chaise‏ @noahchaise 10 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        .@paulg raising flying pigs ? No hat tip to taken though;)

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      1. Joshua Goldbard‏ @ThePBXGuy 10 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg If you have a couple minutes, I penned a response to your piece which I think hits a couple additional points: http://thepbxblog.com/2012/09/10/black-swan-farming-technical-appetite/ …

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      1. Chris Arsenault‏ @chrisarsenault 10 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        Reading Black Swan Farming: http://paulgraham.com/swan.html  by @paulg

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      1. Richard Patey‏ @RichardPatey 10 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg great piece on the risk & variance of investing in #startups - identical to working out the breakeven expected value play in #poker

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Peter Verrillo‏ @PetertheGreat 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg not farming... Not hunting... Fishing with a net. Find an area that feels hot, cast, pull in a bunch of soda cans and maybe @airbnb

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David H. Clark‏ @davidhclark 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg you must have been spending time thinking about my lab http://blckswn.com  :). Great article. Hope to see you at #TCDisrupt

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. PAS AMOR‏ @PAS308 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg Nuevo tratamiento contra cáncer avanzado de la próstata

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Dario Mutabdzija‏ @DarioMRM 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg Re. the bad/good idea Venn diagram - we often hear about Blueseed that "it's so crazy it's probably gonna work". http://paulgraham.com/swan.html 

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      1. Manish Vij‏ @manish_vij 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg Makes sense for crowded markets, but why do you think Apple, MS sounded like bad ideas in the beginning?

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      1. LSM Austin‏ @LeanATX 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg FINALLY! Another essay! woohoo!

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      1. Pravesh Biyani‏ @pravesh 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg full of insight into startup business. A great read.

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      1. TOoᴼᵒº˙⁰0₀ₒ.·ph‏ @tophtucker 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg "Farming", not "hunting"? Interesting—so, cultivating sustainable recurring production of something by reshaping the entire terrain?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Chetan Chawla‏ @ChetanChawla 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @paulg

        @paulg IMHO "black swan hunting" would be more appropriate title considering the asymmetric payoffs involved, farming is false analogy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. David Tran‏ @dtran320 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @ChetanChawla

        @ChetanChawla @paulg Hunting connotes that you can identify them, just hard to catch. Farming appropriate: you tend crops w/o knowing yield

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Chetan Chawla‏ @ChetanChawla 9 Sep 2012
        Replying to @dtran320

        @dtran320 @paulg depends on distribution (power law) of target.Farming implies process can be optimized,instead of exploration w/o guarantee

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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