Paul Graham on Twitter: "This is the main reason it's difficult for very early stage startup investors like YC to predict outcomes. You can tell fairly accurately how smart people are, but there's rarely much evidence about how good they are at doing hard things. Often they don't know themselves.… https://t.co/DNiarQbLL7"

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1. Patrice Fleurquin‏ @PatriceF Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  What are your objective clues that people actually have the grit and resilience to build and run for years? #interested
  
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1. Carlos Leyva‏ @carlos_leyva Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  “Often they don’t know themselves” that’s true, particularly if they’ve never done it before. But that’s where the magic comes from, if everything was predictable it wouldn’t be an adVenture!
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1. Robb‏ @robbsg9 Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  Can you give a few examples of both smart people failing and not so smart killing it
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1. kenn millard‏ @BAR8Y Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  I know I’m bad
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1. aditya ankur‏ @adityankur Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  Look whether they have failed miserably earlier in an endevour that they really, really, really craved. Since they are still standing in that YC interview, you betcha they are de-sentisized now. The hard part is determing the intensity of that "really".
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1. Daniel Tyukov ‏ @daniel_tyukov Apr 23
  Replying to @paulg @Austen
  
  Often the idea evolves as you go, that is why it is important to just role with it, but not build very dependent infrastructure that places you in a box of confinement
  
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