(If it seems strange that I'd be talking about predicting startup outcomes with a 9 yo, it's no stranger than the village blacksmith talking about shoeing horses with his.)
Show this thread
Something I explained to 9 yo on the way to school: When something is hard to predict, you can sometimes still solve the problem by designing a system that doesn't require accurate prediction. Early stage startup outcomes are hard to predict. YC's solution: fund a lot of them.
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Take 50 bets, 5 will work out.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
So agree with this.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
There are schools open?!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
increase the odds
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
So in life, is that: take a lot of bets?
-
Not necessarily a lot. Take a number of bets in inverse proportion to the certainty of the outcome.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
keep hitting until you hit couple of bullseye
and then those couple will define your path moving forwardThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
In almost all meaningful predictions you want to predict a distribution. Most smart people do this (intuitively) and I am sure YC does. And it is still important to get this prediction somewhat correct even if you diversify your bets.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Another example (and also with a direct investing analogy) is smearing the “prediction” over time and altering the weight you assign to it as more evidence comes in. Something like predicting a probability distribution with a time axis.
-
That's something similar as when VCs continue to bet on winners in their portfolio. Make a lot of initial bets, but then double down on the ones which are gaining traction
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.