Do you suggest having regular "meetings with oneself" to (re-)evaluate reality?
Something I taught my 12 yo: Most people underestimate how much the world can change, and practically no one can predict where the change will happen. The only thing you can predict for sure is that some very surprising things will happen.
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Status quo holds on by a thread indeed—all systemic change requires: a confluence of environmental conditions, a little luck, and a sharp pair of scissors.
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The world changes is the most accurate statement that can ever be made
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That’s why we need to keep open minded
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always makes perfect sense in hindsight
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Most people also underestimate how much they and people they know will change over time.
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Biggest changes on Earth so far: the 5 mass extinctions. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-timeline-of-the-mass-extinction-events-on-earth.html … Timing cannot be predicted, either.
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@paulg there are some legendary investors (& founders) who seem to be quite good at this, do you think that's a function of luck + the quantity of bets? Or is there a heuristic that can improve the odds of correctly predicting the future? -
Sturdy trends (Moore's law, Wright's law, ...) + good management?
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That and people always over-estimate what they can get done in a year, but under-estimate what they can get done in 5.
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