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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Mar 21

      Advice to YC founders presenting at Demo Day (and any similarly early stage startup): You don't have to prove that you'll become huge. If it were provable, you'd already have your future valuation. You just have to show that you're a sufficiently good bet to become huge.

      17 replies 258 retweets 1,986 likes
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    2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Mar 21

      What's a sufficiently good bet? If the claim is that you could one day be worth $10b, and you're raising now at a valuation of $20m, that's a 500x increase. VCs would love to get 5x, and if we suppose 3x dilution, a sufficiently good bet = a 3% probability.

      9 replies 37 retweets 488 likes
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    3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Mar 21

      So you're not claiming that you're guaranteed to succeed, only that you have a 3% chance of succeeding. And many of you, if you ask yourself, will find you already believe that. So when you present to investors, remember that you believe what you're saying. They can sense that.

      11 replies 34 retweets 625 likes
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    4. Aatif Awan‏ @aatif_awan Mar 21
      Replying to @paulg

      Does it follow by the same logic that YC will accept startups as long as they can show there’s a 0.3-0.4% probability of succeeding?

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Mar 21
      Replying to @aatif_awan

      It should be lower, but not linearly so, because as you go earlier stage, the ratio of the cost of running the investment firm to the amounts invested increases.

      2:29 AM - 21 Mar 2021
      • 12 Likes
      • Kartikey Rai Saad Arshad Aatif Awan Dolly, age 3 udbhav Shaan M.Khan #Internet4GilgitBaltistan sameer Amin Khan
      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
        1. Aatif Awan‏ @aatif_awan Mar 21
          Replying to @paulg

          Makes sense.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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