You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
What's a sufficiently good bet? If the claim is that you could one day be worth $10b, and you're raising now at a valuation of $20m, that's a 500x increase. VCs would love to get 5x, and if we suppose 3x dilution, a sufficiently good bet = a 3% probability.
So you're not claiming that you're guaranteed to succeed, only that you have a 3% chance of succeeding. And many of you, if you ask yourself, will find you already believe that. So when you present to investors, remember that you believe what you're saying. They can sense that.
Does it follow by the same logic that YC will accept startups as long as they can show there’s a 0.3-0.4% probability of succeeding?
It should be lower, but not linearly so, because as you go earlier stage, the ratio of the cost of running the investment firm to the amounts invested increases.
Startups is Dead. Anyone could use the blockchain to create crypto with use cases
LOL. Blockchain is dead... it's old-school technology. All new blockchain projects, forks, shards, etc. are basically iterations of flawed concepts. But there's hope... something special, better and more powerful is coming end of this year!
are you investing in any personally? have u ever invested in a very very early stage company ?
Founders always believe they have a >> 3% chance of succeeding, or they would not be working on the thing.
Isn't being a founder being the epitome of optimism? I mean, even if only one out of a 100 startups can 'succeed', every founder still believes themselves to be that one. Sure, realism is necessary as a means to an end. However, it's undying optimism that keeps us going.
Since all of sales is really a transference of energy, this makes a lot of sense.
Thanks for this, really appreciate this clear thought! 
I will be at demo day and I will look exactly for those companies. A 3% probability of becoming a $10B company is much better than 99,9% prob of creating a $100m company. Maybe it is a form of loss aversion that affects founders and investors, so these startups are quite rare.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
