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Advice to YC founders presenting at Demo Day (and any similarly early stage startup): You don't have to prove that you'll become huge. If it were provable, you'd already have your future valuation. You just have to show that you're a sufficiently good bet to become huge.
What's a sufficiently good bet? If the claim is that you could one day be worth $10b, and you're raising now at a valuation of $20m, that's a 500x increase. VCs would love to get 5x, and if we suppose 3x dilution, a sufficiently good bet = a 3% probability.
So you're not claiming that you're guaranteed to succeed, only that you have a 3% chance of succeeding. And many of you, if you ask yourself, will find you already believe that. So when you present to investors, remember that you believe what you're saying. They can sense that.
This was about Bitcoin, but surely applies to some start-ups.https://twitter.com/limits_stop/status/1363416359279951872?s=20 …
Five years ago, I suppose you would have benchmarked $1 billion not $10 billion.
Maybe not 5, but probably 10.
Raises two question to me: 1- How do you relate your thoughts (hopes) to credibility? Basically as long as it is talk there are no strong limits (maybe raw limits set by biology and physics). 2- If your idea is a new standard for X. It may change the landscape.
Say you define the new http or new smtp: it will change the structure of the internet itself. How can you put a value on such a thing ? Maybe it is what is happening in crypto today (and maybe having a coin and ICO is the way to adjudicate it) ? So you just need to fund
Yeah, if they have already founded two companies successfully without capital, of which one made actual physical products which take a lot of investment, and they did it all without venture capital because they were female, blond, and single. (1/2)
You kind of have a good chance the third company will rule them all. (2/2)
Definitely I believe this But would VCs really love 5x? Seems most want 0 or 500x.
They’d love 5x for their fund, not for individual investments.
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