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Advice to YC founders presenting at Demo Day (and any similarly early stage startup): You don't have to prove that you'll become huge. If it were provable, you'd already have your future valuation. You just have to show that you're a sufficiently good bet to become huge.
What's a sufficiently good bet? If the claim is that you could one day be worth $10b, and you're raising now at a valuation of $20m, that's a 500x increase. VCs would love to get 5x, and if we suppose 3x dilution, a sufficiently good bet = a 3% probability.
So you're not claiming that you're guaranteed to succeed, only that you have a 3% chance of succeeding. And many of you, if you ask yourself, will find you already believe that. So when you present to investors, remember that you believe what you're saying. They can sense that.
What is more risky to invest in? Startups or Bitcoin?
Interesting question. Investing in startups takes some expertise, so if these markets are efficient, it should be less risky if you have that expertise, and more risky if you don't.
Applies to cryptocurrency protocols even more
Think we all need to hear this once in a while
Another way I've been thinking about it is falsification. If your investor can falsify that you can become big you don't have a shot. A small market would be a good example. If you have a small market there's no way you can become big.
Markets can grow though. Consider space.
Very smart piece of advice!
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