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What would prove you're smart (or at least a good predictor) would be to weight your predictions by outcome. This is what investors do in effect.
Customers(readers/employers) of the reporter don't weigh by the outcome. Imagine being Wall Street reporter being wrong 90% of the time but occasionally right on a few home runs - well in that case he won't be a reporter anyways.
“In the short term the market’s a voting mechanism. In the long term, a weighing one.” Don’t know if news stories have weights
and we don't see reporters on rich lists (unless they own the newspaper). I'm sure they want to be rich, so they don't know.
That's the same as a reporter - basing decisions on the past. Investors have the added benefit of creating their reality by their choices. My def of 'smart' is to predict well enough to build the future before anyone else, but that doesn't have a chance w/o those investors.
Hey paul, i am afraid this might be a stupid question. I couldn't quite understand what you mean by "weigh your predictions by outcome". I'd be glad if you could give an example, or an elaboration.
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