If a simulation is trying to predict the behavior of a simple mechanical system, it's probably accurate. If it's trying to predict the behavior of a biological system, or any other complex system, it's probably not.
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Simulations of complex systems don't provide useful predictions. They provide useful cautionary tales that temper our expectations regarding prediction.
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Are there any exceptions? Are there any simulations of complex systems that have turned out well? Is there a pattern to which turn out well?
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Getting my guess of fluid dynamics in before John gives the answer
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Doesn't well running machine learning make accurate predictions all the time? FB is very good at predicting what ad someone will click, even though that's quite a complex system.
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He must mean more than a tautology...
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- Instead of relying on a single parameterization, rely on a diverse set of model ensembles - Robustly and rigorously cross validate your model, making sure to not leak data across folds It turns out that almost everyone underestimates the uncertainty of their forecasts.
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This is almost of a human problem as a modeling problem: people prefer optimistic forecasts that drastically understate uncertainties to realistic forecasts with robust confidence intervals because they don’t feel as actionable.
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Weather prediction has become increasingly accurate over time. Which is kinda the Ur complex system.
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Hamming's "Art of science and engineering" has a chapter on reliability of simulation. Said that for complex systems the best you can do is the method of scenarios. He'd fend off people wanting ecological sims by asking for laws and data up to his standard.
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(I don't know if he's right, but he certainly had experience.)
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