Paul GrahamVerified account

Additionally, arbitrarily choosing class of 2011 won't suffice. Do this for every class in say last 20 years and then see if the outsized returns still persist

They 100% would. HBS also had Plated, Blue Apron, Rent the Runway, Cloudflare, Docsend and others come out of the prior few years.

Fair, that just suggests don't invest in an index fund of startups. But I'd be shocked if there were 100 startups that came out of that class, so $100B in exits would still be wildly outperforming, that'd be equivalent to if EVERY startup that was started reached a $1b exit.

This is exactly right. If you did a basket from ALL HBS / GSB / Wharton classes over the last decade, the returns would be phenomenal.

Let’s look at the data. As of 2016, 64 grads were founders, half with HBS co-founders. In 2011, that number was probably half (my ‘11 MBA class at Wharton had 15 founders). Over a decade maybe a total of 64 people founded companies. That’s a 10% hit ratio for those we know of!