What if n is a small number?
Luck is a factor in the success of all startups, but you can't succeed as a founder merely by being lucky. If a startup were a single event you could. But although a startup is a single organization, it represents multiple events. So the probability of winning by luck = 1 / 2^n.
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The only startup that seems lucky is Twitter. Proverbial clown car that hit the gold mine. That said Jacks success at Square suggests otherwise.
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Thanks!
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So then the question becomes: how to stack the deck in your favor so that you can have better chances than 1 / 2^n?https://twitter.com/brendanjshort/status/1366472031139598336 …
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Series of lucky breaks. At Waze, we had no clue Tim Cook was going to mention us as a viable alternative to their fledgling Apple Maps. But all that press and new users would have been wasted in a bad product.
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Agreed, however, what can a startup do to make sure they are leveraging and creating opportunities for luck. The irony of luck, is that it’s only luck if you look back at a moment and realize it was advantageous.
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"Surviving long enough to get lucky" is a critical practice Minimizing predictable & avoidable mistakes is an often-ignored aspect of successful entrepreneurship 'Two steps forward, no steps back'
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But, how can I get over my jealously if I can’t attribute someone else’s outcome to luck?
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You could also argue that many single unlucky events make you lose. So the probability of losing by luck would be 1 - 1/2^n. Those events are real, and that's why most startups don't win. You need a lot of luck not to lose.
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