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I think the move is to just be extremely upfront in your writing about your level of conviction. When you’re sure, write with conviction. When it’s more of a hypothesis just say that in the writing. When it’s more of a question, call it that. @slatestarcodex is a master at this.
Well said. I think if it like: the degree of certainty in your writing is a way of telling the recipient how much skepticism to apply to what you’re saying. If you prove trustworthy it’s a super efficient system. When you overuse conviction that trust quickly evaporates.
An issue I've noticed but don't know how to fix is that if you say "I assign 55% probability that..." you come off as sounding very arrogant and overconfident to an audience segment.
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