The best way to predict the future of technology is to pay close attention to human nature.
If you backtest that rule, it doesn't seem to get very good results. I don't see how it would have predicted, say, microprocessors.
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I think he meant “predict some good apps to make”
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Yes it’s completely useless, you can safely say “oh human nature” when you look at all of history
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Unless he means that we are inherently lazy and so are always trying to come up with something new to save us even a modicum of effort.
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I think he meant tech community and its politics, which is not all that different from ordinary politics.
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It may still pass… microprocessors are an manifestation of human’s need to control, automate, make more efficient, etc
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Well, you just took what humanity did in the past and defined it as it's nature. By that definition, literally everything we did was our nature and it become useless to make any prediction (because basically everything we will do will be seen as our nature in the distant future)
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Sure it does. Busicom was paying a fixed price for a calculator design. Fagin et al saw they could extract more profit by reusing hw w sw. It's human nature to seek more for less.
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I mean, true as stated, but that doesn't really narrow the field down.
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Or the iPhone.
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"Some people say, 'Give the customers what they want.' But that's not my approach. Our job is to figure out what they're going to want before they do." --Steve Jobs
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