In January 2018, Vanity Fair declared Facebook had “started its downward spiral.” 2 years later, FB’s market cap is up 50% to $750B. I hope to live this kind of downward spiral one day.pic.twitter.com/GH3DjlaAtM
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It is much worse than random tbh.
That seems unlikely, because that would also be valuable. If their predictions were significantly worse than random, you could make money by investing contrary to them.
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Most big winners actually do that. But then, for most normal people it is difficult breaking such strong opinions, said with do much force.
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Someone created a tracker of Scott Galloway’s calls and bought all the stocks he said were terrible. It’s doing phenomenally well...so maybe depends on the journalist
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In general, journalists are incentivised to be bearish ie warning that something could go wrong. Investment bankers usually the opposite.
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People are incentivized to do whatever brings more attention (and ∴ more humans) to them. Journalists traffic in doom, investment bankers in prosperity. Expect bias in each direction.
End of conversation
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Are you talking about
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It's broadly correlated with what audiences want to hear. Random would be more useful.
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