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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. John Carmack‏Verified account @ID_AA_Carmack 19 Dec 2020

      Because I believe that current supercomputers are actually sufficient for human level AGI, I entertain the (<1%) possibility that there is already one running in a secret lab somewhere. The capital is easily available to hundreds of organizations, but that mode of development \

      88 replies 108 retweets 1,384 likes
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      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 19 Dec 2020
      Replying to @ID_AA_Carmack

      If there is one, there is more than one, because you need orders of magnitude less computing power to run an AI than to train one.

      2:44 PM - 19 Dec 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 271 Likes
      • Datt Goswami Yigit ⚡️ Gordon Brander Trilochana 👁️ Richard Moot Vladyslav Siriniok anime.radio Anoop Sonar Kay Kim (김기웅)
      17 replies 12 retweets 271 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Josu Goñi‏ @JosuGoi1 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          I don't think that applies to an AGI. It has to be able to learn, aka retrain itself.

          3 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        3.  🐝 Bee  🇨🇦 🇬🇧 (Taylor's Version)‏ @bee_sec_san 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @JosuGoi1 @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          We're also forgetting storage limits here. How much does it learn? If it learns a Google Data Centre amount of things, it would be hard for it to spread. However, if you have the money to build an AGI you probably have the money to store everything too.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. César Torres‏ @diffmem 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          humans are not good at keeping secrets, and I think that given the volume of people needed for sucha project, the info that AGI exists would have leaked quickly

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Nick Cammarata‏ @nickcammarata 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          it’s slightly odd to think of it as one or more than one. A bit like saying is there one pdf or two pdfs while referring to the same pdf content

          3 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        3. Stanislav Fort‏ @stanislavfort 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @nickcammarata @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          Not necessarily if they are the same backbone AI + instance-specific special finetuning on top. There the PDF metaphor breaks

          0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Claus Divossen‏ @cdivossen 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          That makes my emphasize the point that our natural GI is being trained and running simultanously, on the same device. A slow process, though, that could be more kickstarted. But a real AGI also had to actually learn while it's running.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. David Picard‏ @david_picard 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          Given enough time, any AI that doesn't do continuous learning will become dumb. The I in AI is as much in the learning and adapting to every new environment as in the instant capabilities.

          2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
        3. Paul Russell‏ @paulrussell 20 Dec 2020
          Replying to @david_picard @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          Agreed. Surely an AGIN would be permanently in reinforcement learning mode?

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Arun Shroff‏ @arunshroff 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          Sir Roger Penrose shows that human thinking is not algorithmic, hence computers can't lead to AGI - in his many books and work - eg in The Emperors New Mind.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. part-time berozgar‏ @demigod_166 19 Dec 2020
          Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

          Absolutely

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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