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Political betting markets still give Trump a >10% chance, both nationally and in several states where *results have been certified*. As I've said before, it's a bit alarming there are so many delusional people out there that the market equilibrium is this detached from reality.pic.twitter.com/SiKXccMvE8
I was astonished to see the same thing here today: https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB . I check occasionally to see when they'll get it, and it still hasn't happened.
the transaction costs make betting markets inefficient as they reach 10% probability non-crypto markets charge huge withdrawal fees and crypto markets inherently have large transaction costs and low liquidity no way to make $ betting on Biden as you approach 90% so nobody bets
also this: https://twitter.com/Ya_Jackalope/status/1331967735153238023 … the smoke test is: go try to make money betting on Biden right now. You can't. So it's best to ignore these markets around the 90% mark.
Well, you do have a PhD in Expertise, so good enough for me
What is the volume now?
@robinhanson the markets are off because of an emotional trigger inducing an irrational belief.
In attorney parlance - introducing doubt (eg gloves dont fit must acquit).
Knowing and controlling those triggers is the edge of info ops / advertising / propaganda detection.
Ordinary markets are full of emotional triggers and irrational beliefs by individuals. Even so, they do well on average.
Can faithless electors not impact the outcome at this point?
I keep being very surprised to see otherwise smart people who can’t seem to fathom that the structural features of these prediction markets make it impossible to make enough money correcting them any further, so the problem isn’t going to just resolve itself.
I know the structural factors for PredictIt ($850 max, 5000 traders max, etc.). What are the structural factors for the other markets?
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