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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 26 Nov 2020

    We'll probably never know the answer, but it would be interesting to know how narrow lockdowns could be made and still work. Would it suffice just to close pubs and restaurants? Would it suffice just to ban the serving of alcoholic drinks?

    6:26 AM - 26 Nov 2020
    • 8 Retweets
    • 313 Likes
    • David Bernat ⚡️ sneh ∆∆∆ James Au Chris Canal Jack Vader Aarjav Trivedi Mitchell Le Gideon Goddard
    81 replies 8 retweets 313 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Bruno Jahn‏ @foxyforecaster 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Germany has currently a pretty narrow lockdown w restaurants, bars and hotels closed and large events cancelled, but not much else.

        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Bruno Jahn‏ @foxyforecaster 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @foxyforecaster @paulg

        It was sufficient to stop massive increase we had seen before but now new cases have plateaued at a still bad level.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Monica Lim‏ @monicalimco 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        I think it could! I am making a short video of a typical day in Seoul, working, eating at a cafeteria. We are masked up but most businesses are open.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        It depends heavily on many other factors - level of mask wearing, how many businesses are open, how cautious people are, etc. The question is what effect each has on R, and if that were known, we'd need real-time data to minimize required interventions to keep R just under 1.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. Nick Walker‏ @nw3 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Weddings seem particularly bad. High dispersion.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Roman Shterenzon‏ @romanbsd 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Data from Israel suggests that you're three times more likely to get COVID19 in public transport than in a restaurant. And twice as likely in a store. For what it worth.

        8 replies 0 retweets 16 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @romanbsd

        Per minute, or per experience? Because people spend more time in a pub than a shop.

        2 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. siggibecker‏ @siggibecker 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Question: what is the minimum viable economy?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Wicked Guide  ⚔‏ @wickedguide 26 Nov 2020
        Replying to @siggibecker @paulg

        Amazon.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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